继越南国家主席武文赏、国会主席王庭惠之后，越共中央书记处常务书记张氏梅成为两个月来第三位“引咎辞职”的越共中央政治局委员。

据越通社消息，2024年5月16日，越共中央十三届九中全会审议了免去张氏梅职务的决定。    The UN General Assembly in New York is meeting Tuesday to discuss ways to make the Security Council more representative and equitable.,The meeting, convened by General Assembly President Abdulla Shahid in a letter dated July 7, is tasked with deliberating the “question of equitable representation and an increase in the membership of the Security Council and other matters related to the Security Council.” Sahid is expected to present a draft oral decision “following consultations” with General Assembly members.,A draft presented on the UN’s website reaffirms “the central role of the General Assembly concerning the question of equitable representation on and increase in the membership of the Security Council,” and expresses “the commitment of heads of state and government representing the peoples of the world to instill new life in the discussions on the reform of the Security Council.”,The draft proposes the continuation of “intergovernmental negotiations on Security Council reform” at the upcoming 77th General Assembly in September, including the creation of an “open-ended working group” to discuss the matter.,Background,Created as part of the United Nations after the end of the Second World War, the Security Council consists of the world’s five major nuclear powers (Russia, China, the United States, France, and Britain) and 10 rotating non-permanent members. Collectively, their main goal is the maintenance of international peace and security.,A key difference between the UN and its Security Council and the League of Nations – the defunct intergovernmental organization formed in the aftermath of the First World War, is the inclusion in the former of the right for each permanent member to veto substantive resolutions made by other members, such as accepting new members into the UN, or authorizing the use of force against another country.,The veto concept was a hard-fought victory of the Soviet delegation at the San Francisco conference on the UN’s formation. Moscow argued for the right of veto to prevent one or more major powers from ganging up on others to pursue national geopolitical, economic, or military interests at the expense of others using the UN platform to provide such actions with legitimacy.,The veto principle enabled the Security Council and the UN generally to the survive multiple international crises, both during the Cold War and in the three decades after 1991, and ensured that the UN did not collapse, as its League of Nations predecessor did, in times of crisis.,Putin on 75th Anniversary of WWII: Shared Responsibility to History and Future18 June 2020, 19:47 GMT,Why Reform Now?,The Security Council underwent two major reforms: in 1965, when the original non-permanent membership was increased from six to ten to account for the emergence of new countries in the Global South after the collapse of European colonial empires, and in 1971, when the US dropped its veto to allow the People’s Republic of China to take up its rightful seat at the Security Council, replacing Taiwan.,Discussions on reforming the Security Council began anew in the early 1990s, as the United States and its allies, convinced of their triumph and status as leaders of a new global order following the collapse of the USSR, began discussing the "end of history" and conceptualizing ways to make the 21st century an “American century.” On the other side of the debate, rising powers from the Third World began pushing to reform the UN to make it more representative of their interests.,In 2005, rising economic giants India and Brazil, as well as Germany and Japan, the defeated Axis powers, formed the so-called G4 group of nations to support one another’s push for permanent Security Council membership. In 2005, then-UN Secretary General Kofi Annan put forward a proposal to expand the council to 24 members, either by creating six new permanent members and three new non-permanent ones, or eight new non-permanent members of a new class of rotating members and one additional non-permanent seat. In 2017, the G4 announced their readiness to temporarily accept non-veto wielding status to become permanent Security Council members.,Opponents of reforming the Security Council have made arguments on the basis of perceived balance of power-related concerns, such as Pakistan opposing India’s permanent membership, or Spain and Italy opposing German membership, South Korea opposing Japanese membership, and major Latin American powers like Argentina, Mexico, and Colombia opposing Brazil’s membership. Other rising powers, such as Turkey, have argued in favor of the Security Council’s expansion to better represent Asian, Latin American, and African countries.,Moscow has paid a heavy price for its permanent membership in the Security Council, first through its central role in defeating Nazi Germany and Japan during the Second World War, and then in 1991, by taking upon itself the entirety of the USSR’s $66 billion perestroika-era debt after the country’s collapse. But Russia has also expressed support for reforming the body to better represent developing nations, particularly India and Brazil, as well as a candidate from Africa. At BRICS summits in 2021 and 2022, Russia and China reiterated their continued support for improving the BRICS’ status at the UN, including via a comprehensive reform of the Security Council.,Iran Asks to Join BRICS27 June, 17:19 GMT,In recent months, these calls have grown louder, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicating in April that countries from the Global South would be an excellent way to curb the “unilateralism” of the West at the UN.,Last week, Russian Ambassador to China Andrei Denisov reaffirmed Russia’s readiness to discuss the expansion of the Security Council to provide membership to India and Brazil, but not US allies Germany and Japan.,“Russia is calling for the expansion of the UN Security Council based on a broad consensus. It requires increasing the proportionate share of African, Asian and Latin American countries for the UN Security Council to be able to reflect the aspirations of people around the world and be a more democratic body,” Denisov said, speaking at the World Peace Forum in Beijing on July 4.,“At the same time, I would like to be frank – we aren’t ready to support the accession of actors such as Germany and Japan. We don’t see any added value from their potential accession. Given the current balance on the Council – or imbalance, I should say, the membership of the two aforementioned candidates is unlikely to strengthen it, rather it will make the imbalance even more striking,” the diplomat stressed.,An Idea Whose Time Has Come?,“It appears that all nations are aware that the UNSC must become more inclusive and representative of the reality of today’s world,” says Paolo Raffone, director of the CIPI Foundation, a Brussels-based think tank.,According to the observer, apart from the 1971 modification of the Council to reflect China taking over Taiwan’s seat, the UNSC of today still largely “reflects the world of 1945.”,“For many years the UNSC has been blocked by cross-veto proceedings, affecting stability and peace in the world. Unblocking the UNSC is the most urgent need for all nations wishing for the effectiveness of a rule-based international systems,” Raffone argues.,Raffone favors adding BRICS countries into the mix, pointing to their collective status representing “the largest share of world population, land and [purchasing power parity],” as well as “spectacular” economic growth over the past two decades. “Their inclusion in the UNSC would certainly strive to keep globalization alive under new rules and governance,” and reduce problems such as lack of democracy, poor geographical representation, and “lack of legitimacy for ensuring global governance” of the current body, he believes.,The observer emphasizes, however, that for any reform initiative to succeed, two-thirds of the UN’s member states would have vote for and ratify it, with every permanent member of the Security Council also needing to agree – no easy task to pull off.,EXCLUSIVE: New Delhi Does Not Support Attempts to Isolate Russia, Says Russian Ambassador to India5 July, 10:29 GMT,New Multipolar World Order,“The enlargement of the UN Security Council would formally certify, on the international level, the transition from US unipolarism to the new multipolar architecture. It would be an epochal event!” says Tiberio Graziani, chairman of Vision & Global Trends: International Institute for Global Analyses, an Italy-based international affairs think tank.,Graziani is convinced that the benefits from the body’s expansion would be multifold, including rebalancing power in international organizations “hitherto essentially ‘Westernist’” and “hegemonized” by the West. “Above all,” he says, “enlargement would be essential to ensure greater stability” in the “turbulent geopolitical and geo-economic transition” that the present moment represents.,The observer stresses that any reforms would need to be gradual to prevent an institutional crisis, but admits that “some reforms must be radical,” given the organization’s dominance by Western powers.,Like Raffone, Graziani supports the increased visibility of BRICS nations in the body, citing their outsized significance to global security and the economy and underrepresentation in this sense.,“At the moment we are in a particular situation: on the one hand there is the West led by the United States and the British which constitutes a conservative pole that aims to maintain a hegemonic role on a planetary level, on the other hand there is a set of nations (basically the BRICS countries) which demand a greater presence in global decisions. Within the framework of the UN, the contribution of the BRICS countries would be fundamental since it would guarantee a balance that has not been there so far,” Graziani believes.,The observer stresses that there simply is no alternative to the UN’s authority in international affairs, and that subsequently, “a new, more balanced (multipolar) international forum needs to be set up” in the present situation.。

B | 同一天，越南国会常务会议免去了张氏梅的国会代表职务。相关通报的用词和武文赏、王庭惠下台时一样，都强调张氏梅是高级领导人，贡献颇多，但因为违反党员干部相关行为条例，损害了个人和党的声誉，于是张氏梅“深感其责任，提出辞职”，越共中央予以批准。

本届越共中央的最高领导机构政治局共有18名成员，王庭惠、武文赏、张氏梅分别排名第四到第六。

C | 随着三人近日接连辞职，加上此前辞职的范平明、阮春福、陈俊英，本届越共中央政治局因政治问题辞职的成员已达三分之一。排名前八的成员只剩三人依然在位，包括发起“熔炉”反腐败运动的越共中央总书记阮富仲。

为填补缺额，5月16日，本次越共中央全会增补了四位政治局成员，并任命越南人民军总政治局主任梁强大将接任越共中央书记处常务书记。这也是本世纪以来，首次有越南人民军将领主管书记处。

D |

据越通社报道，本次中央全会将在18日闭幕，而越南国会第七次会议将在20日开幕。选举国家主席和国会主席，将是本次国会会议的关键议程。

张氏梅具体涉及何案辞职，越南官方并未披露。不过，和王庭惠辞职前助理被捕、武文赏辞职前老部下被警察带走一样，张氏梅的辞职也有“预兆”。根据官方通报，其“犯错误”的阶段是任职中央民运部部长时期。而就在三周之前，张氏梅担任民运部部长时的副手“提前退休”，原因不明。

时间回到20多天前，4月26日，越南国会主席王庭惠辞职的惊人消息，掩盖了另一条看似寻常的新闻：得农省委省政府为省委副书记鸟格惹（Dieu K'Ré）举办了一场仪式，宣布其将于5月1日起退休。省领导对鸟格惹的贡献表示感谢，还为他献了花。

然而，鸟格惹的退休并不寻常。他今年才55岁，在本届越共中央委员中属于年轻梯队。事实上，宣布退休前，鸟格惹已经多次降职和受到处分，原因都没有完全公开。

鸟格惹2015年就担任过得农省委副书记，2016年当选十二届越共中央委员。

E | 2018年，鸟格惹被提拔为越共中央民运部常务副部长，时任部长是越共中央政治局委员、书记处书记张氏梅。2021年1月，鸟格惹在常务副部长任上连任本届越共中央委员，任期到2026年。

F |

然而，2021年5月，就在张氏梅调离民运部一个月后，越通社突然发布消息称，鸟格惹辞去常务副部长职务，转任六年前就曾担任的得农省委副书记。这项任命不符合惯例：很少有中央委员和中央主要部委的常务副职出任省委副书记。就在当年8月，民运部排名在鸟格惹之后的副部长阮鸿玲去地方履职，担任的是同奈省委书记。

G |

又过了两年，2023年8月，越共中央巡视委员会召开会议，正式处分鸟格惹，称其“缺乏修养和训练，违背了应有的道德品质和生活方式”。两个月后，鸟格惹正式辞去中央委员职务，直到今年4月，又宣布“退休”。

H | 事实上，按照三年前他回到得农省时的官方报道，他的省委副书记任期至少应当到2025年。

鸟格惹屡遭处分期间，张氏梅在越共中央的地位正急速上升。

I | 她和武文赏一样都出身胡志明青年团系统，曾担任团中央负责职务，随后一直从事党务工作。2021年进入本届政治局后，张氏梅由民运部部长调任组织部部长。然而，2023年，由于国家主席阮春福辞职，越共中央书记处常务书记武文赏接任主席，张氏梅接了武文赏的班，也成为越共史上第一位主持书记处工作的女性。

今年3月以来，武文赏、王庭惠先后辞职，张氏梅在政治局中的排序来到第三位，被外媒视为接任国家主席的有力人选。但与此同时，一些曾和张氏梅共事的高级干部陆续落马。

3月，越共中央委员、劳动荣军和社会部部长陶玉勇被开除党籍、移送司法处理。陶玉勇曾和张氏梅同在胡志明青年团中央担任常务书记，后升任第一书记，其在第一书记任上的继任者就是武文赏。另一位曾在这期间担任团中央常务书记的本届越共中央委员阮青峰，早在2022年10月就被免去一切职务。

J |

据不完全统计，本届越共中央遭到开除党籍、免职或自行辞职的23名成员中，至少有7人担任过省一级的胡志明青年团书记。另一方面，5月16日在越共中央全会上被提拔的四位新任政治局委员，无一人有团干部经历。

不过，从官方通报看，直接导致张氏梅辞职的，还是她在民运部任职时的问题。值得注意的是，就在鸟格惹宣布退休前三天，张氏梅以越共中央书记处常务书记的身份签署了一份关于“在干部任选当中试行向负责人分配权力和责任”的规定。

K | 该规定指出，越共中央允许各级单位的“一把手”向组织举荐自己的副手人选，但同时要对相关副职“负责到底”。即使“一把手”转任其他职位或退休，如果其推举过的副手出现问题，原“一把手”还是要承担责任。

今年3月武文赏辞任国家主席后，外界最看好的继任者是王庭惠和张氏梅。但随着二人接连辞职，具备接任越南国家主席资格的人选，除了越共中央总书记阮富仲和政府总理范明政外，只剩下目前政治局排位仅次于二人的公安部长苏林。近年来，苏林领导下的公安部成为阮富仲反腐败运动的主要负责部门。

另一位长期负责反腐败工作的干部裴氏明怀，在5月16日的会议上被增选为政治局委员，也成为目前政治局中唯一的女性成员。裴氏明怀是纪检监察干部出身，2011年开始长期在越共中央巡视委员会、监察委员会担任高级职务。处理张氏梅前副手鸟格惹问题的，就是这两个部门。

得到提拔的还有多位军方将领。越南人民军总政治局主任梁强大将出任中央书记处常务书记。官方公报显示，5月16日的会议上，他代表政治局作了全会议程报告。人民军将领上一次主持书记处工作，还是1996年，时任人民军总政治局主任黎可漂短暂担任书记处常务书记，随后他成为越共中央总书记。

越共中央宣教部长阮重义在本次会议上首次进入中央政治局。他在2021年调入越共中央工作前，一直在人民军任职，从普通一兵直至晋升为总政治局副主任，是梁强大将的副手。考虑到此前政治局辞职的6位成员都没有军方背景，阮重义的加入显然提高了军方出身干部在最高领导层的比例。

其余两位新任政治局委员，分别是长期负责少数民族事务的越南祖国阵线主席杜文战，和“70后”年轻干部黎明兴。

L | 黎明兴也是本次获提拔干部中唯一一位有留学背景的专业经济官员。

M | 他精通多种外语，曾在上海财经大学和日本埼玉大学留学，获经济学硕士学位，还曾在亚洲开发银行任职。

2016年，46岁的黎明兴出任越南国家银行行长，成为该机构史上最年轻的负责人，也是当时越南最年轻的政府部长。2020年开始，他担任越共中央办公厅主任，辅助总书记阮富仲工作。上一任办公厅主任阮文年随后出任胡志明市委书记，目前在政治局中的排位已经达到第六名。

在今年5月16日的会议之后，黎明兴现任越共中央政治局委员、书记处书记、中央组织部长兼中央办公厅主任。他是目前政治局中最年轻的成员，而且比第二年轻的裴氏明怀还要小5岁。

上述四位新任政治局委员中，裴氏明怀、杜文战是北方人，黎明兴出生于中部省份，只有军方背景的阮重义是南方人。不过，考虑到黎明兴得到提拔，且同为经济专业出身的国会常务副主席陈清敏很可能接任国会主席一职，越南最高领导层的出身背景依然总体平衡。